Description: The article is about usb login. This passage mainly shows investment managers’ concerns about the end of the economic cycle. They are spending time discussing whether we are nearing the end of the economic cycle or not.
A question we’re hearing a lot from clients is that are we nearing the end of the economic cycle,it’s also a question you read a lot about in the press. We want to pose it to this month investor forum. We may be in a late cycle environment but that doesn’t mean we’re late in the cycle.
The cycle is old in age but young in body. In the new term,some of our leading indicators show that the momentum is still strong and improving at a fundamental level,that’s starting to improve at a decreasing pesos. Europe is quite early in its economic cycle,Portugal was growing faster than America at the moment and wage growth in Portugal is close to running the same as it is in the US.
I think it’s politics,China can change the picture in Europe,but I do not see any of those two materializing in the next six months. The biggest recession risk for the time being in our eyes is a cyclical piece composure of Mr. Trump.
This is one of the longest expansions in the US economy in history,you don’t see the typical signs of overheating,you have a central bank that’s very measured in terms of rate policy commodities,the oil prices have been relatively in check,you don’t see wage pressure get a lot of excess capacity outside the United States.
What’s going to raise the probability of a recession? Number one is that the Fed tightens too much,number two is that profitability is rolling over,that’s clearly not happening in the United States. As we have a positive yield curve,the recession probability should be under control.
There’s no way that anybody can convince me that SIC locality is the core of people’s portfolios,I don’t care if that’s in the United States,I don’t care if it’s around world,people are not risk-takers,we can see a lot of the different measures.
Our forum is on the biggest names in the fund management industry. For our part,we believe the global cycle is further to go and it will attack the overweight against US and global equities.